In Omicron cases they double every two days. According to the Scottish forecast, the variant will become dominant within 10 days, supplanting Delta
The uphill contagion and the rapid spread of the Omicron variant
UK scientists and leaders worry. Starting with the Scottish premier Nicola Sturgeon who even spoke of a “tsunami” triggered by the upcoming variant for all Scots (and not only).
And the media are wondering about the new restrictions coming for all British citizens.
The number of positives recorded in the past 24 hours across the kingdom hit a record high of 58,194 new cases (yesterday there were 50,867), never so many since January, a period in which the distribution of vaccines had just begun and the variant in circulation was still the Alpha. There were 120 deaths (yesterday 148).
As for the infections from Omicron variant, there have been 448 new cases in the last 24 hours, bringing the total across the country to 1,265. Yesterday, the daily growth was 249 new infections, so it increased 54% in just one day: confirming the high contagiousness of the variant mentioned by British scientists. In fact, beyond the actual sequencing, estimates tell us that the real cases of Omicron could be many more, at least 4 thousand
Scottish government projections released by Sturgeon estimate that the ultra-infectious strain from Omicron I will surpass the one from Delta to become the dominant stock as early as next Tuesday and will represent beyond 90% of infections by December 20.
Omicron already represents the 13.3% of Covid cases in Scotland, which became landmark for the variant along with London, but doubles every two days: Scotland reported 5,018 positive covid tests today – the highest number in three months and double that of a week ago.
Obviously the concerns are all for the tightness of the health system: in an exclusive interview with Guardian Neil Ferguson, a mathematical epidemiologist at Imperial College London and one of the UK government’s top scientists, spoke of a rather explosive wave of hospitalizations, depending on the severity of the disease caused by Omicron. A wave that could substantially overwhelm the NHS and cause up to 10,000 hospitalizations a day if it proves as virulent as Delta.
Precisely to counter the spread, Nicola Sturgeon invited the Scots to reconsider their plans for the holidays and stated that from tomorrow Scottish families will have to self-isolate for 10 days if a family member is positive: all family contacts in any case confirmed Covid are expected to isolate themselves for 10 days, regardless of their vaccination status and even if they initially get a negative test.
In short, a few days after the launch of plan B designed by the premier Boris Johnson to combat the epidemic and which introduces the obligation of smart working and a Green Pass limited to discos and large events, on some media, such as the tabloid Daily Mail, there is already talk of government meetings to develop a more restrictive plan C in view of the holidays. But from Downing Street they reply, for now, that the Plan B measures are the right approach and with the right balance.